Rapaport市場報告

Hong Kong Opens Strong, Cutting Centers Pleased with Momentum

二月 16, 2012 6:00 下午

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Hong Kong show opens with strong traffic as Far East demand exceeds low expectations. Cutting centers hoping this momentum will continue. De Beers expects cautious market in 1Q and reports 2011 sales +26% to $7.4B with DTC prices +29%, net earnings +72% to $939M, production -5% to 31M Cts. U.S. 2011 jewelry store sales +10% to $30B as jewelry inflation +10%, while polished imports +20% to $22B and exports +29% to $18B. Hong Kong 2011 polished imports +27% to $17B. Blue Nile 4Q sales -2% to $112M, net income -32% to $4M. Gitanjali 3Q sales +33% to $713M, net profit +28% to $26M. Gold jewelry demand +25% to $99B in 2011 but volume -3% to 1,963 mt. as Indian demand slumps in 4Q.

Global Markets

United States: Wholesale trading is weaker as dealers are still cautious about market conditions and retail orders are soft. There is a continuing shift toward less expensive goods as consumers remain very price sensitive. As a result, there is steady demand for SI stones and there is improving demand for fancy shapes, which offer a more affordable alternative to rounds. Retailers continue to offer strong discounts to boost sales but their main focus is back to bridal with stable demand for engagement rings with 0.70-carat to 1.10-carat, G-H, SI1 center stones.

Belgium: Polished trading is relatively stable but concerns linger about the state of the economy and how the ongoing debt crisis will affect consumer confidence, especially for luxury goods. Dealers are anxious about this week’s Hong Kong show and have sent large quantities of goods to the event. There is good demand for better quality stars, and for 0.70-carat to 1.00-carat, VS-SI stones, while demand for VVS clarity goods is weak. Rough trading remains cautious and manufacturing margins are tight.

Israel: Trading is slow as weak global demand and the ongoing police investigations into alleged money laundering practices in the bourse have affected confidence. Cutters and dealers have been focused on preparing for the Hong Kong show and are hoping to gain some clarification about the direction in which the market is heading. There is steady demand for mid-to-low color and clarity stones. There is improving demand for fancy shapes, especially cushions and princess cuts.

India: Local polished demand has improved marginally from last week as the rupee-dollar exchange rate has been relatively stable. However, overall trading remains slow due to the wide gap between asking and offer prices. In general, buying is focused on just what is needed to fill orders. There are very few foreign buyers seen in the market. There is steady demand for star goods and dossier certs. Rough trading remains weak. There is ample supply of rough in the market but wide price differentials are restraining trade. Dealers are hoping that the Hong Kong show will be positive and provide a clear trend about demand and prices.

China: Caution continues in the wholesale market as polished buyers are unsure about price levels. Many have traveled to the Hong Kong show to look for goods and assess market conditions. But there is no urgency to buy and many are willing to wait a few weeks to see if a clear downtrend develops. Similarly, retailers are holding back buying, even as they have been willing to offer discounts to boost sales turnover over the Valentine’s Day period.

Hong Kong: Activity was focused on the show which started on Thursday. Expectations for     the show have been relatively low as trading in the cutting centers before the event has been quiet. Vendors are expecting a busy next week with a lot of inquiries but they remain uncertain to what extent these will translate into real sales.